Astronomers predict a sharp decline in solar activity. Scientists offered a new method for predicting space weather 25 th cycle of solar activity

Moscow, 15 Jun - RIA Novosti. Solar activity in the next 20-30 years may dramatically decrease, which is capable of repeating the so-called "mound minimum" - the longest falling of solar activity from 1645 to 1715, with which the Small Ice Age is associated in Europe.

Three scientific groups that submitted the results of their studies of the solar crown, its surface and internal structure at the Astronomer-Heliophysician conference at the University of New Mexico in Las Cruces, came to the conclusion that the next, 25th, solar activity cycle can be significantly weakened. or in general will be missed.

"This is very unusual and unexpectedly, but the fact that three fundamentally different approach to the study of the Sun indicates one way is a powerful evidence that the solar activity cycle can fall into a hibernation," says Frank Hill (Frank Hill) from the national solar Observatory in New Mexico.

The last 400 years of the Sun observations indicate that our luminaire is experiencing alternating periods of growth and reducing activity that replacing each other with a period of about 11 years.

In the period of growing activity in the Sun, outbreaks occur significantly more often, "coronal holes" appear - areas with increased speed of solar wind - and plasma emissions that cause magnetic storms on Earth. The main indicator of the level of activity is the number of solar spots - comparatively dark and cold areas, which are formed where the "tubes" of a very powerful magnetic field come out on the "surface" of the stars. Spots appear more often at maxima of activity, and much less often - with a "calm" sun.

The new cycle is accompanied by a change in the polarity of the solar magnetic field.

The previous 23rd solar cycle (their numeration of the beginning in the 1750th year of the Zurich Observatory) was distinguished by a record deep minimum. The number of days without stains became the biggest since the beginning of the 19th century. At the same time, the rise in activity in the new 24th cycle was very "gentle", the growth of solar activity, according to scientists estimates, lagged behind the "Graphics" for about three years.

The sun flows into the hibernation?

Scientists who studied the dynamics of changes in the magnetic field of the Sun, found that the signs that usually indicate the beginning of the origin of the spots of the new cycle, are missing or poorly pronounced. According to the researchers, the next cycle of solar activity is either "delayed" until 2022, or it will simply not be.

According to modern ideas, the Sun changes the intensity of emitted radiation mainly under the influence of the fluctuations of the magnetic field. It changes due to the fact that the plasma that makes up the little matter of the shine, rotates around the core of the star at different speeds on different latitudes - at the equator faster, the poles are much slower (up to 30%).

This generates temporary magnetic perturbations, which impede the normal exchange of plasma between the external and internal layers of the luminaries. As a result, such sites are significantly cooled, which explains the decrease in the radiation intensity and the darling of the visible surface of the Sun in these areas.

Astronomers recorded several signs that allow them to predict a noticeable decrease in solar activity in the next cycle. The group under the leadership of Hill found that the rotational fluctuations of the plasma flows preceding the formation of magnetic perturbations did not appear on time.

The second group of scientists from the Kitt-Peak National Observatory found that the average power of the magnetic field was reduced by 50 Gausss per year per two previous solar activity cycle (1 Gauss - a unit of measurement of a magnetic field that corresponds to the power of the magnetic field of the Earth).

According to Matt Penn (Matt Penn) and William Livingston (William Livingston), if this trend continues, and the force of the field will fall below 1500 Gaussians - the minimum stain formation threshold - then the stains will not appear due to the fact that magnetic perturbations will not be able to impede the exchange Matter between hot inner layers and colder external.

The third group of astronomers found that the rapid growth of the power of the magnetic field in the poles of the Sun, which precedes the change of one cycle of solar activity to others, this time it may not be enough strong to displacing the old cycle new. This will lead to Richard Altrok (Richard Altrock) from the National Solar Observatory, to a serious theoretical problem, since the current views do not provide for the existence of two foci of magnetic activity in the sun.

"If our conclusions are true, then the next solar maximum will be the last, which we will see over the next few decades. This phenomenon will affect all - and the study of outer space, and the climate on earth," writes Gill.

Do not hurry

Russian Heliophysicist Sergey Bogachev from the Physical Institute named after Lebedev believes that American colleagues were somewhat hung up with conclusions. According to him, the current cycle is indeed developing as expected, but it is yet to say that it will be anomalous too early.

"Talk about what is happening that the abnormal one is not yet. It can be expected that the cycle will be unusual, but so far nothing says that he will be anomalous," said the scientist in a conversation with RIA Novosti.

According to him, it can be seen with the naked eye, as activity from 2009 to 2011 increased, and deviations from the expected values \u200b\u200bare stacked in the average.

"Height is - and this is obvious. It is pronounced quite bright, and it is possible to argue only about the speed of this growth. My impression is that it is slowed about two times compared with the normal growth rate of the cycle, but in general it is stacked in the diversity of cycles that Observed over the past 260 years, "said Bogachev.

In turn, Dr. Eva Robbrecht (Eva Robbrecht) from the Sun Physics Department of the Belgian Royal Observatory told RIA Novosti that now there are no strong evidence that the sun falls into the hibernation. "

"We do not understand the mechanism of work" Sunny Dynamo "to make such applications. In the same way we can assume that the Sun" Great Maximum "survived in past cycles and now returns to the average level (activity)," the agency's interlocutor said .

In particular, it notes that the data cited by Altrock on the appearance of the spots of the new cycle on higher latitudes than should be explained only by the optical effect.

In addition, the expert believes, the conclusions of Penn and Livingstone are also not sufficiently founded, since they are based on the solar cycle data only for 13 years, which is too little for such far-reaching conclusions.

"It may be the effect of the past weak cycle," she says.

Whole eleven days in the sun, contrary to the well-known saying, there is not a single spot. This means that our star enters into a period of minimal activity and over the next year magnetic storms and X-ray flashes will be rare. What happens to the Sun, when his activity will again increase and what these decals and lifts are explained, we asked to tell the employee of the X-ray Astronomy Laboratory of the Fian, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Sergey Bogachev.

Today there are no spots in the sun

The average monthly Wolf number in the sun is an index that scientists measure the number of solar spots - in the first three months of 2018 it dropped below 10. Before that, in 2017 it was held at 10-40, in another year earlier in some months reached 60. At the same time In the sun, solar flares almost ceased to occur, and with them the number of magnetic storms on Earth tends to zero. All this indicates that our star is confidently moving towards the next minimum of solar activity - the state in which it turns out to be approximately every 11 years.

The concept of the solar cycle itself (and under it is understood just a periodic change of maxima and minima of solar activity) is fundamental for the physics of the Sun. For more than 260 years, since 1749, scientists in every day follow the Sun and gently record the position of solar spots and, of course, their number. And, accordingly, for more than 260 years, periodic changes have been observed on these curves, something similar to the pulse beating.

Each such "blow of the solar heart" is assigned the number, and from the moment of the start of the observations of such shocks, 24 were observed. Accordingly, it is so many solar cycles while familiar to mankind. How many of them were there whether they exist all the time while there is a sun, or appear episodically, whether their amplitude and duration change and what duration, for example, had a sun cycle during dinosaurs - there is no answer to all these questions, as if Is characterized by a cycle of activity for all stars of solar type or exists only on some of them, and if there is whether there will be two stars with the same radius and mass to have the same cycle period. We do not know that.

Such an impact, the solar cycle refers to the most interesting solar secrets, and although we know quite a lot about its nature, yet many fundamental basics for us are still a mystery.

Schedule of solar activity measured by the number of spots in the sun, in the entire history of observations

The solar cycle is closely related to the presence of the so-called toroidal magnetic field. Unlike the earth's magnetic field having a type of magnet with two poles - north and south, the lines of which are directed from top to bottom, there is a special type of field in the sun, which is missing (or indistinguishable) on Earth - these are two magnetic rings with horizontal lines that are squeezed The sun. One is located in the northern hemisphere of the Sun, and the second in the southern, approximately symmetrically, that is, at the same distance from the equator.

The main lines of the toroidal field lie below the surface of the Sun, but some of the lines can float to the surface. It is in these places where the magnetic tubes of the toroidal field pierce the solar surface, and solar spots occur. Thus, the number of spots in a sense reflects the power (or more accurately - the flow) of the toroidal magnetic field in the sun. The stronger it is the field, the larger the stains, the more their number.

Accordingly, from the fact that once in 11 years, the spots in the sun disappear, it can be assumed that once in 11 years the toroidal field disappears in the sun. That is how it is. And actually it is the periodic appearance and disappearance of the solar toroidal field with a period of 11 years - and is the cause of the solar cycle. The stains and their number are only indirect signs of this process.

Why is the solar cycle measured by the number of spots, and not by the power of the magnetic field? Well, if only because in 1749, the magnetic field in the sun is observed, of course, could not. The magnetic field of the Sun was found only at the beginning of the 20th century by American astronomer George Hale, the inventor of spectrogelograph - an instrument capable of measuring the profiles of the solar spectrum lines, and including observe their splitting under the action of the zeeman effect. Actually, it was not only the first measurement of the field of the sun, but in general the first discovery of the magnetic field in an extraterrestrial object. So the astronomers of the XVIII-XIX centuries have only remained that to observe solar spots, and they had no opportunity to even guess their connection with the magnetic field.

But why then the stains continue to count these days when multilateral astronomy is developed, including surveillance from space, which, of course, give a lot more accurate information about the solar cycle than a simple count of the Wolf number? The reason is very simple. Whatever the modern cycle parameter you measure and, no matter how accurate, it will not be, this figure will not be compared with the XVIII, XIX data, and mostly of the XX century. You just do not understand how strong your cycle is.

Last solar activity cycle

SILSO DATA / Image, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels

The only way of such a comparison is to calculate the number of spots, and exactly the same method and by the exact same formula as 200 years ago. Although it is possible that in 500 years, when significant series of new data on the number of outbreaks will be accumulated, about radio emission streams, a number of spots will finally lose the relevance and continue only as part of the astronomy history. So far, this is not.

The knowledge of the nature of the solar cycle makes some predictions on the number and location of the spots in the sun and even accurately determine the moment when the new solar cycle begins. The last statement may seem doubtful, as in a situation where the number of stains decreased almost to zero, it seems impossible to confidently assert that the stain that was yesterday was referred to the previous cycle, and the spot today is already part of the new cycle today. Nevertheless, this method is, and it is connected with the knowledge of the nature of the cycle.

Since solar stains occur in those places where the surface of the Sun pierce the line of a toroidal magnetic field, each stain can be assigned some magnetic polarity - just in the direction of the magnetic field. The stain can be "northern" or "southern". Moreover, since the magnetic field tube must punch the surface of the Sun in two places, then the stains must be predominantly formed by pairs. At the same time, the spot formed in the place where the line of the toroidal field exits from the surface, will have the northern polarity, and the pair of it is a spot formed where the lines go back - southern.

Since the toroidal field is reinforced by the sun as a ring and directed horizontally, then the pairs of spots are oriented on the Sun disk mainly horizontally, that is, they are located on one latitude, but one in front of the other. And since the direction of the field lines in all stains will be the same (they are formed by one magnetic ring), the polarity of all stains will be oriented equally. For example, the first leading, stain in all pairs will be the northern, and the second, lagging, southern.

Structure of magnetic fields in the area of \u200b\u200bsolar spots

Such a template will be supported all the time while there is a field of field ring, that is, all 11 years. In another hemisphere of the Sun, where the symmetrical second ring of the field is located, the polarity will also be maintained all 11 years, but there will be back directions - the first spots will be the opposite southern, and the second is the north.

What happens when the solar cycle changes? And there is a sufficiently amazing thing called the ransom. The North and South Magnetic Poles of the Sun are changed in places, and along with them the direction of the toroidal magnetic field is changed. At first, this field passes through zero, this is called a solar minimum, and then begins to recover, but with another direction. If in the previous cycle, the front spots in some hemisphere of the sun had northern polarity, then in the new cycle they will already have southern. This allows you to distinguish from each other the stains of neighboring cycles and confidently fix the moment when a new cycle begins.

If you return to the events in the sun right now, then we observe the process of dying the toroidal field of the 24th Solar Cycle. The remains of this field still exist under the surface and sometimes pop up up (these days we see separate weak stains), but in general these are the last traces of the dying "sunny summer", as the individual latter warm days in November. There is no doubt that in the coming months this field will finally die and the sun cycle will reach the next minimum.

23:40 25.11.2018

The sun passes through a minimum of the solar cycle.

Solar activity is currently passing through the lower point of the 11-year cycle. This is evidenced by the data of space and terrestrial observations of the solar surface, as well as solar flares monitors, registering the lowest level of the activity of the Sun over the past decade.

The cyclical nature of solar activity is one of the most reliable established facts about our star, known since the middle of the XIX century. Initially, it was found in a periodic increase and decrease in the number of spots in the sun, and subsequently confirmed the measurements of the number of outbreaks, the speed of solar wind and other characteristics of the Sun as the stars. The step of changing these characteristics on average is 11 years old, but has quite wide boundaries. In history are known as shorter cycles, which lasted only 9-10 years and long-term with a period of 12-13 years. The amplitude of the cycle changes - from extremely large, observed, say, in the middle of the 20th century, to the very weak, registered at the junction of the XVIII and XIX centuries. It is possible that there are more global changes that exciting entire historical epochs, but for such studies there is not enough reliable archaeological and geological information.

The second decade of the XXI century while it shows low solar activity. The solar maximum that was passed in 2012, contrary to numerous apocalyptic scenarios, with reference to the Mayan calendars, they even reflected in cinema. The film "2012" was one of the weakest in modern history. This gave food for conflicting predictions, from the concerns that the sun falls into a new minimum of mounder (a period of extremely low activity in the second half of the XVII century, which coincided with the small glacial period on Earth), and to opposite scenarios, that the energy that did not find the exit This maximum will be released in the following, leading to record splashes of activity.

As usual, the answer, who was right can give only time, and it seems that it gradually comes. Judging by the measurements of the X-ray radiation of the Sun, the state of our star is currently coincided with templates characteristic of the lowest point of the cycle. Indirectly indicate the measurements of the number of solar flares. If in 2016, 286 outbreaks of the level C and higher (score, starting from which events are able to influence land), and in 2017 there are 223 outbreaks, then in the current 2018, only 13 outbreaks occurred over the past 10.5 months. The last one, and was registered on July 6, 2018, that is, more than 4 months ago. In other words, the sun, apparently, went down on the very bottom of the solar cycle and passes through its lower point, in which it occurs a layer of solar activity. Currently, under the solar surface at a depth of about 0.5 million km, the first magnetic fields of the new cycle should begin to form, which will gradually emerge from this enormous depth, until they break into the surface and will not launch a new flywheel of solar flares.

The usual interval between the lower point of the cycle and the beginning of the growth of solar activity is the interval from six months to a year. Accordingly, the beginning of the growth of solar activity can be expected in the second half of 2019. After that, in particular, in the first few months of observations, it will be possible to make a preliminary conclusion how cool is the growing activity curve, and which of the future cycle scenarios is being implemented. However, since some of these scenarios suggest the beginning of a new Maunder minimum, which means freezing the mechanism of solar cycles for decades, at first, at least, it is necessary to wait until the sun comes out of the current minimum.

The Sun is observed signs of starting a new activity cycle.

The first signs indicating the approach of the new solar activity cycle are observed in the sun for the last two weeks. Such signs are magnetic fields with a different pattern, differing from the one that the last 11 years have been observed, which began to appear in the northern hemisphere of the Sun at a large distance from the equator.

Although the solar cycle is perceived by most people as a change in the number of solar flares and magnetic storms, it is undoubtedly substantially more complex nature. In particular, since the outbreaks are explosions (that is, essentially the release of energy), it is reasonable to ask where this energy accumulates? The answer to this question is considered established - the energy will be copied in the magnetic field of the Sun. And since the accumulation of energy undoubtedly should precede its release, the changes in the magnetic field must precede solar flashes. This happens. In particular, it is observations of the dynamics of magnetic fields in the sun are the main way of predicting the flame activity.

For this reason, it is not difficult to guess that the global 11-year-old flywheel changing the frequencies of the flashes should hide the flywheel of the magnetic field of the Sun. Such a flywheel in the sun, indeed, is, and it is called a dynamo-mechanism. Because of the rotation of the sun, the magnetic field line seems to be wound on it as threads on the ball, increasing their tension, then reach a maximum, and then after a short pause (peak activity) begin to spin in the opposite direction. Unwinding in this way they pass through a minimum and without stopping continue to spin already in the new direction to the next maximum. If you imagine this picture, you can understand that in a minimum of the solar cycle, the global magnetic field of the Sun does not simply pass through zero, but changes its direction. It is this change that is a sign of the close start of the new cycle. At the same time, there is another feature, which is not so easy to explain without attracting physical formulas, but which is also reliably installed - the fields of the old direction disappear always near the solar equator, and new fields of other orientation always appear on high latitudes, and the higher the higher the higher It is believed to be a new cycle.

The first region of the magnetic field of other orientation was registered in the sun on November 8 and existed about a day, which made it possible that it is an accident. On November 17, about the same high latitudes, a new magnetic flow surfaced with the same (reverse) orientation. At the moment it is almost destroyed, but his traces are still visible on the sun disk. In general, the behavior of our star these days is very similar to the stage, which always precedes the start of the cycle. The reason for such a "timid" behavior is that the magnetic fields in the sun are formed at a very large depth and pop up very slowly and gradually. As a result, the mass popup of the field is usually preceded by the emergence of small magnetic islands - the first regions, broken through the thickness of the solar plasma in a depth of more than 200 thousand km. Next, several scenarios are possible, among which the rapid (for six months or the year) pop-up of the main new magnetic flows and the pulse launch of the flaw flywheel. It is possible, however, the slow growth of activity, when the sun is stuck at the bottom point for 2 or 3 years. In any case, if the appearance of new threads is not accidental, it can be concluded that the fundamental physics of solar activity works correctly, and the conditions for the new cycle are already formed somewhere in the depths of our star hidden from the eye. It remains only to wait for how fast and with what an intensity it will appear on the surface.

Scientists from the Laboratory of X-ray Astronomy of the Sun of the Physics Institute. PN Lebedeva RAS (Fian) was recorded on the star of the region with a magnetic field of a different orientation, different from the one that was the last 11 years. According to astrophysics, this indicates the approach of the new cycle of solar activity. This is reported by the site of the laboratory.

Possible magnetic fields of the new solar cycle
Photo obtained by the HMI telescope on the SDO satellite 08.11.2018.

The activity of the Sun varies with a certain periodicity under the influence of the magnetic field of the star. These periods are called solar cycles. The change in the magnetic field of the Sun is associated with a dynamo-mechanism, or solar dynamo. During the cycle of the magnetic field line, they change their directions: first they are located along the meridians, and when the maximum activity is reached, the activity is replaced by directed along the parallels. During this period, the number of stains on the star reaches the maximum. Then again the lines return to the "vertical" position, however, opposite in the direction of primary. The whole process takes about 11 years, therefore, the name of the 11-year-old solar cycle is called. And since in a minimum of the solar cycle, the global magnetic field of the star changes its direction, to return it to the initial position it is necessary that a 22-year cycle passed.

In Russia, the leading center for the study of solar activity is the Laboratory of X-ray Astronomy of the Sun. Its employees monitor and analyze solar activity with the help of a Tesis space telescope designed in the laboratory. This equipment is installed on board the Russian satellite coronas photon, launched in 2009 from the Plesetsk cosmodrome. Thanks to Tesras, scientists received more than half a million new images of the solar crown, solar flares, coronal mass emissions and other phenomena.

So, on November 8, with the help of Tesis, scientists registered the region of the magnetic field of a different orientation. She appeared far from the equator and existed for about a day. Then, on November 17, a new magnetic flow of the same orientation appeared on the same latitudes, as is November 8. Now he is almost destroyed, but his traces are still visible on the sun disk.

Astrophysics associate the appearance of these areas with the ambiguity of the new solar cycle. Magnetic fields in the sun are formed at great depth and "pop up" to the surface very slowly. As a rule, such small magnetic islands are becoming the "first swallows" of the new cycle, who managed to break through the solar plasma a depth of more than 200,000 km.

After that, the events may begin to develop in different scenarios. A slow growth in activity within two or three years is possible. But there may be a sharp rise in six months-year, after which a series of outbreaks - enhanced energy emissions and an increase in the level of X-ray and ultraviolet radiation of the Sun will begin. When the stream of high-energy particles reaches the ground, it can cause magnetic storms. They, in turn, can lead to overloads in electrical systems and disrupt radio communication.

We will know with you that the solar activity of cyclic and each cycle lasts about 11 years. During this time, the sun from the state of full hibernation wakes up, gaining power. Then gradually enters the state of complete activity and pleases us with a large number of strong outbreaks. Well, later, again, begins to fall asleep until it stops its activity at all.

Audio

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Now we are on the threshold of the new 25 solar cycle, which begins in our eyes. Signs of its start are already observed in the southern hemisphere of the Sun. Earlier, about a month ago, similar processes were found in the northern hemisphere. Thus, the transition from the minimum of the activity of the Sun to the growth phase has been launched on a global scale, both in the north and in the south of our star. In the new 2019, the Sun decided to join, completely updated, as if corresponding to the earthly solstice. However, outbreaks and stains will have to wait either from several months to a year.

On Earth, the magnetic field is united and has a generally plaguard. The sun has two magnetic belts - one is located in the northern hemisphere, the other in South. At the same time, if the magnetic field line on the ground is directed vertically from the south to the north, then in solar magnetic belts they are located horizontally, parallel to the equator, and the sun is swinging in a circle.

The question arises, how much two magnetic belts of the Sun depend on each other or are they developing independently? Both belts are formed by one process - the rotation of the Sun. However, the solar cycle usually goes differently in the north and in the south - it can be stronger in one belt, and weaker in the other. The moments of the start of the cycle in the North and South Hemispheres may also differ. So in the past, 24 solar cycle, the northern hemisphere was more active, where the greatest number of outbreaks occurred.

About a month later, it was in this, northern, hemisphere that magnetic flows were found with a different direction of the field lines other than the direction characteristic of 24 cycles. These flows were evidenced by the fact that in the north of the Sun the process of forming a new cycle is running, and now it remains only to wait for it when it starts unfolding in full force. In the Southern Hemisphere of the Sun, the former direction of the field lines was maintained all this time without any hints to change. And recently, on December 16, in the southern hemisphere of the Sun, a new magnetic flow of 25 cycles also surfaced. Although in such cases an accident element is always possible, but this stream is quite stable. It can be said that this is, indeed, the beginning of the formation of 25 cycles in the southern hemisphere.

It should be understood that the first signs do not yet talk about the large-scale beginning of the new cycle, just as the first snow does not mean the beginning of winter, and the first positive temperatures - the beginning of summer. While it only indicates that the processes began the new cycle are launched, and on a global scale, and in the north, and in the south of the Sun, and also that they develop according to the traditional scenario. The actual start of the cycle should expect no earlier than the summer of 2019.

New Year Residents of the Earth will meet in calm geomagnetic conditions close to ideal. The oscillations of the magnetic field on the first output of the day, January 30, 2018, until January 3, 2019 goal, will correspond to the natural natural level of changes in the earth. At the same time, the New Year's Eve will become one of the most calm for the whole year. A weak increase in magnetic oscillations is possible only on January 4 due to a slight increase in the speed of the solar wind, but it will last no more than a few hours. After that, the situation will be comfortable again. The second weak growth of the geomagnetic background is possible according to the forecast after the end of the vacation, January 16, but also should not last more than 3-6 hours.

That's how our great sun feels at the moment, dear listeners. We look forward to the awakening of our great luminaries, together with whom our fiery spirit will be awakened!